The collection of oil tax revenue represents 60 percent of total tax revenue in the country and 53 percent of current revenue, according to data from the General State Budget 2024 (OGE 2024), cited in the research specialists' note.
In accumulated terms, the collection of oil revenues in the first four months of 2024 amounted to 2.927 billion kwanzas, which represents an increase of 43 percent compared to the same period in 2023, and 37 percent of the total foreseen in the OGE.
"The value obtained was above expectations, with the collection forecast for the first four months of 2024 expected to correspond to 33 percent of the total, thus, the surplus in collection corresponds to a value of 333.86 billion kwanzas", indicates the analysis.
This performance was influenced by exports, which averaged 1.15 million barrels/day, above the production forecast for 2024, of 1.06 million barrels/day.
The average price of oil was 80.59 dollars/barrel, exceeding the OGE 2024 estimate of 65 dollars/barrel.
The oil tax revenue, "according to expectations, will be able to support the fulfillment of obligations related to the payment of debt service assumed by the country, with national or international creditors", emphasize the analysts.
The total debt service for 2024 is around 14 billion kwanzas, with the oil revenues forecast in the OGE representing 55 percent of the total debt service.
In terms of the amount of total debt service for the first four months of 2024, the predicted value is 5.592 billion kwanzas, that is, oil revenues for the first four months corresponded to 52 percent of the debt service for the same period.
According to the Banco Millennium Atlântico document, "the control of the impacts of the collection of oil revenues on the fulfillment of debt payments is envisaged".
This scenario could justify the decreasing trajectory of the 'yields' of the internal debt issued by the Treasury, with the aim of reducing the cost of debt, and reflects an oil revenue higher than expectations.
"However, the current scenario of high inflation rates and reference interest rates requires higher 'yields' for public debt securities, to attract investors and capture resources to apply to the Government's financing needs", according to analysts.
