"In sharp contrast to the rest of the world, we expect the Angolan central bank to cut the key interest rate in 2022, as inflation continues to slow down from current high levels", reads a comment on the decision by the National Bank. of Angola (BNA) to keep the interest rate at 20 percent at the last meeting.
According to the commentary, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, these analysts believe that "the interest rate will be cut by 100 basis points to 19 percent in the second half of the year, to keep real rates slightly positive, as is recommended by the International Monetary Fund".
The national currency, the kwanza, has appreciated in recent weeks and months, now worth 430 kwanzas to the dollar, following high fuel prices, which helps to alleviate the rise in inflation in the country, which is very dependent on imports. .
"The recent slowdown in the growth of monetary and credit aggregates should further sustain a moderation in inflation", underline the analysts, recalling the reductions in VAT rates on basic products such as eggs, bread, mineral water and soap, among others, and the suspension of customs duties for various basic food products.
The Oxford Economics forecast comes after the BNA considered that the kwanza exchange rate had reached equilibrium and said that it did not foresee changes in monetary policy.
Speaking at a press conference in Huíla, after the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, on 31 May, the BNA governor also encouraged economic operators, especially those that depend on imports, to opt for forward exchange.
José de Lima Massano said that the kwanza had appreciated 36 percent up to April against the dollar, since the beginning of the year, and despite having registered "a certain pressure" in May, nothing points to an excessive variation of the currency in the direction of depreciation.
Also, the money supply did not slow down, since in May it exceeded one billion dollars, he continued, admitting that there may have been "a moment of adjustment", and it is likely that stability will be maintained.
"By the way, in the last few days, the exchange rate has practically not moved, we will have an indicator of what positive is happening", he underlined.
Therefore, the BNA will maintain the current course of monetary policy to maintain stability: "In this way, particularly for imported products, we are in a position to mitigate the external shocks that are currently happening with a generalized rise in prices in the main economies ", stressed the central bank official at the press conference at the end of last month.