Bumba, creator of the Angola Investor Market platform, highlights that the budget forecast, anchored at a price of 70 dollars per barrel of Brent, clashes with a reality where oil is already traded below 67 dollars, exposing public finances to significant risks.
In an analysis sent to VerAngola, the expert details that the country's strong dependence on oil revenues makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks.
"The discrepancy between the OGE reference price and the current Brent price could have serious impacts, from reducing investment capacity in crucial sectors such as health and education, to potential budget deficits and payment delays," he says.
Bumba emphasizes the need for the Ministry of Finance to adopt a proactive stance by considering a responsible budget review, rather than placing excessive confidence in the recovery of the oil market.
To mitigate potential negative impacts, the economist presents a set of strategic suggestions. These include reprioritizing public investments, strengthening domestic tax collection, seeking debt renegotiation mechanisms, stimulating the private sector through incentives and considering the creation of a fiscal stabilization fund to absorb future shocks.
The economist adds that the revision of the OGE should not be just an adjustment of numbers, but an opportunity for Angola to accelerate its transition to a more diversified and resilient economy.
Finally, it calls for urgent and responsible action on the part of the Executive, reinforcing that the review of the 2025 State Budget is "crucial to guarantee the sustainability of public finances and Angola's credibility before investors and international partners".
The economist concludes that the moment requires vision, courage and leadership to prepare the country for an economic future less dependent on the volatility of the oil market.
