"Maintaining a neutral perspective will be Angola's strategy in the near future", said Jeanne Ramier, explaining that "big power relations are not perceived as a zero-sum game, as the West tends to face them", in which a side loses and the other wins.
Angola "is more concerned with leveraging international relations to advance its own interests", he stressed in statements to Lusa regarding Angola's position vis-à-vis its traditional ally Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine and condemnation by the West.
"Maintaining a position of neutrality will not necessarily be easy, but Angola has historically been successful in doing so, for example in the cases of North and South Korea, or Israel vis-à-vis Palestine, and I doubt that the great powers international forces force Angola to choose a side," she said.
Foreign policy has gained importance since João Lourenço won the presidential elections in 2018, due to the need to attract foreign direct investment to help diversify the economy and gain budgetary space for the investments necessary for economic development, recalled the analyst, noting that "João Lourenço's goal has been to get closer to the West to complement the relationship with China and Russia".
However, she pointed out, "the ties with these two partners remain strong, and Angola should not give priority to the West in view of the historic partnerships it maintains with these two countries".
Angola will not opt, even so, for a separation from China, which continues to be the biggest buyer of oil, being responsible for the acquisition of 72 percent of all exports of crude oil, and the biggest trading partner and creditor - Angola owes China nearly 20 billion dollars, one-third of the total external public debt.
"The partnership with the Chinese continues to be a priority for Luanda, so João Lourenço will try to maintain good relations with Beijing while at the same time deepening ties with other countries", considers Jeanne Ramier, noting that the same will happen with Russia.
"For historical reasons, the country remains a strong ally of Angola and, especially, of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), which in many respects owes the survival of the regime it established to the political, diplomatic, military and training support of the former Soviet Union", recalled the analyst.
Admitting that Russia "no longer has the vital importance it once had and is not a significant economic partner", it is still important, being a crucial player in the Angolan diamond market and Angola is the fourth largest customer of Russian weapons.
"The visit, in January, of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, to Luanda, the April joint interministerial commission in Luanda, and the probable participation of Lourenço in the Russia-Africa summit, in July, in Saint Petersburg, are signs of that Luanda remains committed to maintaining good relations with Moscow", concluded the analyst in statements to Lusa.
