"Angola is the country with the most potential to respond to the European Union's short-term energy needs; it is one of the few countries in the region that already exports gas to international markets, including Brazil, Japan, China and South Korea," said Marisa. Lourenço, in statements to Lusa about the new European energy policy.
At stake is the attempt by Western countries to diversify gas purchases from Russia, and the prospect that African gas-producing countries may be a viable alternative.
"The ability to increase gas production, together with the already well-established supply chain, makes this country the immediate winner of the geopolitical change brought about by the war in Ukraine, with Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritania and the Senegal to be well positioned to benefit in the next two to three years," said the analyst.
"Angola not only already has an export infrastructure that gives it an advantage over its regional peers, allowing the European Union to access supply chains, but the major oil companies do not have to invest so much capital to access reserves, and it is able to to increase production", added the analyst.
Praising Sonangol as "a competent company that is capable of attracting highly qualified foreign workers", the Control Risks analyst stresses that European countries are already looking to Angola, exemplifying the "important agreement" between Italy and the country to "diversify energy sources".
Opportunities for Angola will also arise “from the deep historical ties with Portugal and France, as well as the strengthening of the relationship with Germany since João Lourenço came to power in 2017”.
Asked about the prospects of Equatorial Guinea and Mozambique, which will be one of the largest gas producers in the world at the end of this decade, Marisa Lourenço replied: "Mozambique, like Nigeria, will not be able to seize the opportunity, the first one due to the volatile security situation, and the second due to the limited development of the gas sector and a confusing regulatory framework".
The military insurgency in Mozambique, in Cabo Delgado province, "is delaying the country's evolution from a small producer selling most of its production to South Africa, to a global exporter", with exports due to start in 2026. , "but this date is still subject to the volatile security environment".
Regarding Equatorial Guinea, the South African analyst says that the country should benefit from its connection with Spain, which is the largest trading partner, "which means that it will have the opportunity to revive the dormant gas fields to serve other markets in the European Union. in the next two to three years".
Equatorial Guinea, like Angola, "already has its export infrastructure prepared, with shipments not only to Spain, but also to Chile and the United States, but an inefficient bureaucracy undermines the attractiveness of the market, although the increase in demand and the opportunity for oil majors to move away from Russia could drive improvements in the business environment".
