"We anticipate that Angola's economy will return to moderate growth of 1.7 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2022, with the reduction of cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries contributing to an increase in production and exports, supporting the general economic recovery ", wrote the analysts of Fitch Solutions in a commentary on the evolution of the country.
In the comment, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, analysts of this consultant owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings pointed out that inflation is expected to slow from 22.2 percent last year to 19.7 percent this year and 14.2 percent next year, anticipating a stabilization of the kwanza, the national currency.
"We believe this will allow the National Bank of Angola to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 15 percent this year, and again to 14 percent in 2022," wrote the analysts.
Regarding the reform agenda that has been implemented in recent years, Fitch Solutions estimated that the momentum will continue, "maintaining political continuity", but still warned of several risks.
"Having said that, the risks of social instability will remain high in the short term, reflecting the growing public discontent with the poor economic conditions", they stressed.
Among the main risks identified by the consultant are a possible drop in oil prices beyond the forecasts, "which would put greater pressure on the official exchange rate, increasing inflation" and, on the other hand, "an excessive depreciation of the kwanza, which increases the cost of external debt and puts debt sustainability at risk ".
