Fáusio Mussa, who spoke on Tuesday night at the first edition of the SBA Economic Briefing for 2025, under the theme “Angola, Growth beyond Oil”, said that the scenario of uncertainty and volatility will characterise much of this year, affected essentially by a set of policies from the United States of America (USA).
According to the official, the tariffs implemented by Donald Trump's government have caused disruptions in the market, despite the International Monetary Fund (IMF) considering that there will be no recession in its outlook for the evolution of the global economy.
“The IMF suggests that this is not a recession scenario, but it is reviewing its economic growth forecasts for the global economy”, said the same official, believing that “after this initial period of trying to implement tariffs on a certain volume, there may be reflection and correction, and that in the end there will be less disruption to the global economy”.
The senior economist at Standard Bank highlighted that the implications for Africa and Angola in particular would be, especially if China, a major economic partner of the African continent, which is growing at a slower pace, were to import fewer raw materials from countries that depend on commodity exports to the Asian country.
“The first impact would be a lower volume of exports, because there is less demand. The second impact would be the price. We know that President Trump wants the price of fuel to be slightly lower than it is now, he is encouraging an increase in oil production”, he stressed.
In the specific case of Angola, an oil price lower than that projected in the State Budget (70 dollars per barrel) means that “some adjustment will be necessary”.
“Our suggestion, from an economic point of view, would be that the sooner we discuss the impact of this situation on the State Budget, and if we reach a conclusion on what measures are necessary to avoid a fiscal deficit, which then generates pressure on public debt, the sooner this happens, the better”, he declared.
According to Fáusio Mussa, a timely rectification “reduces the uncertainty in the economy”, and allows economic agents to foresee what type of changes may occur, due to the international situation and the impact on the domestic economy.
“Thirdly, it allows Angola to maintain some fiscal discipline to which we have become accustomed in recent years, especially in 2024. We have seen both domestic and external debt reduce, as a result of a primary fiscal surplus. It would be good if this discipline were maintained, because it helps to reduce the weight of debt service in total revenue, and helps to create fiscal space for investment expenditure in infrastructure”, he added.
Standard Bank predicts that Angola will see inflation of around 25 percent by the end of the year, taking into account a new adjustment to fuel prices.
Fáusio Mussa stressed that inflation in Angola is a phenomenon that reflects a very insufficient supply of foreign currency, which puts pressure on constant changes.
According to the official, reducing inflation involves, for example, greater incentives for local production, considering that “increasing the production of local goods and services is a way of helping to combat inflation”, which has been above 20 percent since December 2023.
The Government predicts inflation of around 17 percent by the end of 2025.
