"The government's forecast is for GDP to fall by 1.2 per cent this year, extending the recession for the fifth year in a row, but we anticipate a deeper recession developing, and we have updated our forecast to show a fall in GDP of 2.8 per cent this year and 0.8 per cent in 2021," reads the monthly analysis of African economies.
In the document, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, Standard Bank analysts recalled that "the sharp decline in oil prices forced the government to propose a revision of this year's budget, assuming a fall in the price from 55 dollars to 35 dollars with oil GDP falling 0.17 per cent, with production of 1.36 million barrels per day".
The month of April will be the first full month in which the average oil price "will be below the psychological barrier of 30 dollars, which means that in countries like Angola the value is below the budgetary and external 'breakeven point'," which means it is not enough to pay for production.
For analysts, Angola's positive record in implementing the International Monetary Fund's financing programme "is an advantage for the country", but it cannot be ruled out that some of the metrics will be revised "due to the current challenges of indebtedness, both internal and external, which will inevitably rise".
