"The last time there was a global surplus of this magnitude was never," said Jim Burkhard, vice president and director of the oil department at IHS Markit.
According to Burkhard, quoted by the financial information agency Bloomberg, "before, the last period of surplus that lasted one semester in this century resulted in an excess supply of 360 million barrels, but what comes next will be twice that or more".
In a note sent to investors, the consultant says that this is the most likely scenario if the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia continues and keeps the oil price at around $ 30 a barrel, about half the value recorded in the beginning of the year.
Reducing oil prices is especially difficult for countries like Nigeria, Angola or Equatorial Guinea, which put oil at a price of around $ 55 a barrel, and who rely heavily on oil export revenues to balance budgets and finance the public expenditure, including infrastructure for economic development.
The reduction in oil prices is also linked to the pandemic of the new coronavirus, which significantly slowed economic activity and, consequently, the demand for fuels.