"President João Lourenço will probably maintain his commitment to monetary and budgetary reforms despite the reduction in popular support for these reforms, following the collapse of oil prices", reads the note of analysis.
In the report, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the director of the consultant, Darias Jonker, writes that “the local elections scheduled for this year must be postponed to 2021, given that the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) , in power, will thus have more time to respond to the fall of the economy ”.
On the other hand, he adds, "the unpopular International Monetary Fund program is likely to remain on track, but it can be threatened if Angola fails to meet the performance criteria on budgetary consolidation and late payments."
Regarding the evolution of the economy for this year, Eurasia estimates that the recession will continue this year "due to the low growth of the non-oil sector in 2019", which should force Finance "to review the growth prospects, the revenue projections and expenditure from now on, and must also present a revised budget at the beginning of April ”.
Regarding the postponement of the municipal elections to next year, Darias Jonker argues that “budget constraints and a lack of preparation, in general” require the postponement, “which benefits the MPLA, which was already concerned with economic performance even before the falling oil prices ”.
Low prices, however, have the advantage of "making it easier for consumers to absorb the reduction in the kerosene and propane gas subsidy, which was announced last week, making this reform less controversial than the imposition of VAT".
