"We hope that policy makers in Nigeria and Angola will be forced to devalue their national currencies in an effort to conserve foreign currency reserves," analysts wrote in a note on what the main African economies will face this week, which is likely to be marked by the impact of the coronavirus on African territory.
"The number of confirmed cases in sub-Saharan Africa is still scarce, but it has already doubled compared to last week, with fewer confirmed cases among the billion Africans than in the US state of Massachusetts," the analysts put into context.
In an analysis note sent to customers, and to which Lusa had access, Capital Economics writes that "a sustained outbreak in sub-Saharan Africa can be difficult to contain" and recalls that "most African countries have 3 to 10 hospital beds for every 10,000 residents, compared to 30 to 60 in Europe".
In the commentary, analysts warn that "even if this region manages to avoid a large-scale outbreak, it will not avoid the economic impact of the virus," which is added to the effect of lower oil prices in countries exporting this raw material, such as Nigeria and Angola.
"In Nigeria, the increase in production volumes and the large non-oil sector will help to accommodate the impact, but in Angola, on the contrary, we think that export revenues will fall by almost 2.5 percent of GDP in the first quarter alone," making Angola the country most affected by this context and "pushing the economy into even greater recession this year.
Last year the Angolan currency had already fallen by around 30 percent against the dollar, which in part led to public debt rising to levels around 100 percent of GDP.
The coronavirus responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic infected around 170,000 people, of whom 6,500 died. Of those infected worldwide, over 75,000 have recovered from the disease.
The outbreak started in China in December and spread to over 140 countries and territories, which led the World Health Organization to declare a pandemic situation.
