Speaking to Lusa this Friday, Wilson Chimoco said that the Government decided to increase customs duties, in the most recent update it made, for the import of rice and wheat, to 40 percent and 20 percent, respectively, when knows that "it is unable to meet domestic demand".
The natural response to this measure "is the chain increase in prices", stated the university professor, a situation that, he highlighted, "could worsen".
"The Government does not explicitly admit it, but the OGE [General State Budget] indicates that in 2024 it will adjust fuel and electricity prices again", he stressed, and if that happens it will accelerate inflation even further.
Wilson Chimoco also said that Angola is facing a challenging situation, because the increase in inflation means that the central bank has to tighten monetary policy, which in return makes it impossible for the national Treasury to finance itself in the markets to meet its needs.
"And, of course, the impacts will be immediate in terms of delays in salary payments to civil servants and the growth of the economy", he maintained, considering the assessment that financial rating agencies will make on Angola's risk as "another serious problem".
According to the Angolan economist, a downward revision will reduce the possibilities of the State returning to issuing 'Eurobonds' (debt securities in foreign currency), with low costs, while at the same time it will force commercial banks to increase impairments for Public Securities, which they hold on their balance sheets.
"And, due to the challenges expected for debt service in 2024, the Government may be forced to reinstate expenses and, in the most serious scenario, request a review of the OGE", he argued.
For the macroeconomics professor at the Catholic University of Angola, the solution is to present a clear medium-term disinflation plan.
"That it must be clear in its objectives and deadlines and that it must necessarily include an exchange rate anchoring to China and a plan to offer national production led by the Strategic Food Reserve", defended the also collaborating researcher at the Center for Studies and Scientific Research at the University Catholic of Angola.
