"The main exporters of raw materials in sub-Saharan Africa are likely to be hardest hit by the epidemic, as China is a major importer of oil and minerals, but there are a wide range of regional markets that are exposed to any slowdown in chinese investment," write the analysts of this consulting firm owned by the same owners as the financial ratings agency Fitch Ratings.
The analysts also warn that a revision to the forecast of 2.3 percent GDP growth in the region is likely this year.
In the note, sent to investors and accessed by Lusa, analysts write that "economies with health systems and a weaker macroeconomic framework are particularly at risk, while markets in South Africa are especially vulnerable to the degradation of economic sentiment".
Specifically about Angola, Fitch Solutions warns: "the drop in crude oil production should already have an influence on the trade balance and economic growth in the coming quarters, and as the third largest oil supplier to China, Angola is strongly exposed to downside risks in the Asian giant's demand for oil, or a drop in prices".
Thus, they add that "a sustained decline in demand or prices will make the projection of economic growth of 0,3 percent even worse".
For Fitch Solutions, it is not only in reducing Chinese demand that the dangers for sub-Saharan Africa are found, but also Chinese foreign investment can be affected, and in this case Angola is once again one of the countries focused on in the report, which notes that the Portuguese-speaking country is among the five largest recipients of Chinese investment in 2017, along with South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Nigeria.
This consultant has already revised downwards the Chinese economy's growth forecast for this year due to the contagion effect, now anticipating a 5,6 percent expansion instead of the 5,9 percent previously estimated, which "will bring down the prices of raw materials, including oil and minerals, which dominate the region's exports as a whole".
Thus, they point out, "oil-exporting countries like South Sudan, Angola and Congo are the most vulnerable to falls in commodity prices, particularly as they are already facing considerable political and budgetary challenges".
In 2019 Angola exported around 479 million barrels of oil at an average price of 65.2 dollars per barrel, totaling revenues of 31.2 billion dollars, according to data presented at the end of January by the National Directorate for Markets and Trade Promotion of the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Petroleum (MIREMPET).
The main destinations of exports were China (72 percent), Spain (6 percent) and India (5 percent).
