According to the most detailed explanation of the maintenance of Angola's rating at B-, on December 15 last year, released this week, Fitch Ratings presents specific forecasts for each year, predicting that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of this Portuguese-speaking country to go from growth of 0.2 percent in 2023, to 0.9 percent and 1.5 percent this year and next.
"Our GDP growth forecast assumes a decline in oil production, to an average of 1.09 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.05 million in 2024 and 2025, which is slightly below the government's Budget forecast General State for 2024, which assumes a production of 1.05 million barrels in 2024 and well below the Ministry of Hydrocarbons' forecast of 1.18 million barrels per day between 2022 and 2025, which reflects production at capacity maximum", analysts write.
Angola's rating "balances weak governance indicators, high inflation, high levels of debt in foreign currency and one of the highest levels of dependence on raw materials among countries assessed by Fitch, with higher international reserves than than peers, current account surpluses and manageable payment risks due to a still favorable oil price in the next two years", write Fitch analysts in the detailed note, consulted this Tuesday by Lusa.
Among the main positive points of the Angolan economy, this financial rating agency owned by the same owners as the consultancy BMI Research highlights the high levels of international reserves and a globally balanced budget, which reduces financing pressures.
On the contrary, the main weaknesses are "a high dependence on raw materials, well above other African oil exporters, high debt service costs, a large percentage of public debt, representing around 70 percent of the total debt volume, weak human development and governance indicators, and high inflation relative to peers".
Regarding public debt, Fitch foresees a slight increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is expected to increase from 57.3 percent last year to 60.6 percent this year and 64.2 percent in 2025.
