"For the eight countries that reported reserves individually over the past six months, four (Angola, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique) face external debt service payments in 2023 equivalent to more than a quarter of reported reserves, with Cabo Verde having to pay the equivalent of 23 percent of foreign reserves", says Fitch Ratings.
According to an analysis of the public debt in the 18 sub-Saharan African countries covered by this financial rating agency owned by the same owners of the consultancy Fitch Solutions, Angola leads the volume of debt payments until 2025, always having to pay more than 6 billion dollars annually until 2025.
The report, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, specifies that Angola, at the end of this year, will have paid 6.48 billion dollars, which will be added to next year's 6.7 billion, 6.4 in 2024 and 7.3 billion dollars in 2025.
"World Bank data show that aggregate debt payments in sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 will rise by around 7 percent to 26.8 billion dollars, with payments at maturity relatively high in Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon , Ghana, Kenya, Namibia and Nigeria", write the analysts.
At regional level, payments will reach 22.3 billion dollars, an increase of around 4 percent compared to the 21.4 billion dollars that will be paid by the end of this year.
Access to international markets has been hampered by the rise in interest rates by central banks, which automatically makes it more expensive to issue sovereign debt securities, but also to pay coupons in dollars, as there has been a generalized depreciation of African currencies following of rising inflation.
"Access to international markets may improve between 2023 and 2025 if global interest rates retreat from the cyclical peak or if international investor sentiment improves, facilitating refinancing", write Fitch Ratings analysts, warning that "if the environment remaining challenging, meeting debt payments through drawdowns of foreign currency reserves could increase rating pressures in many countries.
External debt payments
....................2022.....2023....2024....2025
Angola............6488......6727....6436.....7341
Cape Verde......128........144.....150........146
Mozambique.....751........826.....752.......746
Values in millions of dollars
