"We maintain our forecast that inflation will continue to slow through the rest of this year and into 2025, due to favorable base effects and reduced pressures from global commodity prices," write analysts from Oxford's Africa department Economics.
In the note sent to investors, and to which Lusa had access, on the evolution of rising prices in Angola, Oxford Economics writes that "the weakening of the Angolan national currency in the second half of the year, to more than 900 kwanzas per dollar, will slow down disinflation in 2025", which is why they anticipate that inflation will remain at 28.1 percent this year and 19 percent in 2025.
The forecast is based on an oil price of 72.6 dollars per barrel and "a modest 1.7 percent increase in oil production in 2025, resulting in a 2 percent decline in oil exports compared to 2024 ".
Therefore, they conclude, the national currency should be worth, on average, 922.7 kwanzas per dollar in 2025, which represents a weakening compared to 870 kwanzas per dollar this year.
Inflation in the country slowed down again in October, standing at 29.17 percent, down 0.76 percentage points compared to 29.93 percent in September, but it is still 12.59 percentage points above the value observed in the same month of 2023, according to the National Statistics Institute's Quick Fact Sheet, relating to the Consumer Price Index (IPCN), which shows a downward trend for three months.
"Food and non-alcoholic beverages" were the classes that most contributed to the increase in the general price level with 1.01 percentage points during the month of October, followed by "miscellaneous goods and services", "health" and "clothing and footwear".
In October, the monthly inflation rate was 1.55 percent, which represents a slowdown of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous month, according to the Quick Information Sheet.
The "Health" and "Hotels, cafes and restaurants" classes recorded the biggest price increases in monthly terms, with a variation of 2.06 percent.
Also noteworthy are the price increases seen in the following classes: "Clothing and footwear" with 1.84 percent and "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" with 1.81 percent.
