"Inflation will remain higher than 22 percent in the second quarter of next year due to the effects of the weakening exchange rate on imported consumer goods," said Gerrit van Rooyen, adding that "the forecast points to an average inflation rate of 20.8 percent in 2024, above the average of 13.6 per cent recorded this year."
Commenting on the National Bank of Angola's decision to raise the reference interest rate by 100 basis points, to 18%, on Tuesday, the analyst from the African department of the British consultancy Oxford Economics states that "although the BNA has been reluctant to raise interest rates since the kwanza 'crash', because of weakness in the domestic economy, the central bank is expected to continue raising the interest rate, to 19 percent in the first half of 2024, as inflation should continue to increase and the economic recovery in the coming quarters should be only modest".
For Oxford Economics Africa, the kwanza is expected to maintain the current exchange rate, between 830 and 845 kwanzas per dollar, until the end of next year, a decision based on a "moderate recovery" in oil revenues.
The central bank announced on Tuesday that it had raised the reference interest rate to 18 percent, previously set at 17 percent, due to the rising trend in inflation, and plans to continue with a restrictive monetary policy.
“The trajectory of inflation recommends maintaining the restrictive direction of monetary policy with a view to aligning it with the medium-term objective, a situation that will continue to be monitored by the National Bank of Angola and which may lead to the taking of additional measures if necessary. ”, reads the statement released at the end of the meeting.