"In general, this budget is another budget in pure and simple formal logic. There is a law and the law has to be complied with, but in terms of what the country's economic and social problems really are, this Budget says very little", stated the economist.
Speaking to Lusa, about the numbers and perspectives of the General State Budget (OGE) 2024, whose proposal is already in the National Assembly, Chimoco highlighted that the diploma "once again prioritizes" the obligations that the State has with internal creditors and external.
The expert highlighted that almost 60 percent of the 2024 OGE is concentrated on debt service, amortization and interest payments and the remainder, "which does not prioritize the needs of the population, will then be distributed to execution and more related expenses with social, economic and security issues for the State itself".
"Therefore, it is a more private OGE, in the sense that it will meet the needs of the creditors that the State has today than a public OGE that meets the needs of the country", he maintained.
The Government forecasts Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.8 percent in 2024, reflecting growth in the non-oil sector at a rate of 4.6 percent, and inflation of around 5.3 percent. In the same year.
The projections of the national economy for the economic year 2024 are described in the report justifying the OGE 2024 proposal, which sets expenses and estimates global revenues valued at 24.7 billion kwanzas and highlights that oil production, including gas production, this year it should fall 2.6 percent.
At least 57.8 percent of total Budget expenditure for the 2024 economic year, estimated at 14.3 billion kwanzas, will be allocated to servicing public debt, both internal and external.
For Wilson Chimoco, the aforementioned OGE perspectives for the 2024 economic year are, in general, unambitious, highlighting that the projection of economic growth below 3 percent is not encouraging, as it is "far below what are the growth needs of the Angolan economy"
"The worst thing is that I feel that this perspective has no basis to maintain", he pointed out.
According to the expert, even with the expected growth of 2.8 percent "there are no real foundations" for achieving the target, highlighting that the Government presents this perspective using the supply side.
He recalled that the authorities estimate that the non-oil sector will grow above 4.8 percent to support these perspectives, however, he pointed out, when looking "from the demand side, there are many clouds that cannot support this perspective ".
"On the demand side we have family consumption, consumption with public spending, we have investments, exports and imports", he stressed.
For the economist, exports in 2024 are expected to fall because the Government predicts that oil production will reduce and the reference price will also drop from 75 dollars to 65 dollars a barrel.
Public consumption also "remains restricted", and, "for this reason, the OGE shows that spending on current expenses will reduce next year", he added.
"The entire common OGE will increase, but tax expenses will reduce, we are saying that in terms of public consumption expenditure, in 2024, they will also reduce", he noted.
The economist also considered that the slowdown in inflation projected by the authorities for 2024 will be based on the restriction of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Angola, noting that there is no prospect of an expansion of credit.
"Worse still is that the business environment remains very challenging and the country will hardly be able to hire foreign investment to support greater national investment, therefore exports will fall, public consumption will reduce, investment will not be able to expand", he stated.
Still in the economist's opinion, there should be a greater contraction in imports in 2024, as a result of the depreciation of the kwanza.
On the other hand, the projected zero fiscal balance "is challenging and should continue to penalize the next Budgets and increase the stock of public debt".
