"Last month's elections represent the biggest political defeat of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) in almost 50 years of governance", reads an analysis of the August legislative elections in Angola, which saw the MPLA win the most thin since independence.
"Although the pace of reforms had almost stopped before the elections, João Lourenço will now try to accelerate economic and political reforms to captivate a younger electorate that has so far been captured by the opposition", the analysts point out in the commentary on the results, in the which they believe that these political reforms will be used by the President to ward off internal critics.
"João Lourenço will focus on the fight against corruption to improve the party's image and ward off opponents; the reforms on liberalization and democratization will only come later in the second term", estimate the analysts, arguing that the President faces the dilemma of deepening the reforms, and thereby captivating the electorate, but facing the most conservative wing of the party.
As an example, Eurasia points to privatizations and the signal given by the continuity of the Minister of Finance: "The most conservative within the MPLA will probably oppose the increase in privatization of State assets, fearing that the departure of the State will dilute power of the MPLA on the economy and result in a loss of influence and control of patronage networks, but the President will remain committed to privatization efforts to attract international investors, increase growth and improve public finances", they write.
It is therefore important, they argue, that Vera Daves de Sousa remains as Minister of Finance, because "it indicates that the Executive will likely maintain a conservative fiscal perspective, while recognizing the MPLA's need to increase social spending".
With the legislative elections already over, attention turns to next year's municipal elections, which Eurasia says will be important given that "the scale of UNITA's gains can determine the pace of reforms" in this second term of João Lourenço .
