"Oil production in Angola continues to improve this year, in line with our projection; production grew 3.8 percent to 1.17 million barrels per day from January to August, compared to the same period last year, and our short-term outlook is optimistic, with production forecast to increase from 1.13 million barrels per day in 2021 to 1.18 million this year," the analysts write in a commentary on oil in Angola.
In the note, to which Lusa had access, this consultancy stresses that oil revenues, which are currently 40 percent more expensive than at the same time last year, rose by more than 72 percent in the first eight months of this year compared to same period and foresees new projects soon in the country.
"Our short-term outlook for oil production in Angola is optimistic thanks to the new projects; phase 2 of the Zinia project, by TotalEnergies, and the Cuida project, by Italian Eni, whose production started in May and August 2021, respectively, in addition to the Cabaça Norte and Ndungu projects", they point out.
Despite this forecast, the risks are negative, stress the analysts, exemplifying that there may be more technical problems and disruptions in supply chains.
"In China, which accounted for 70 percent of Angolan oil exports in 2021, the confinements related to the Ómicron variant adversely affected the recovery of Angola's exports and forced the national oil company, Sonangol, to sell oil cargoes with large discounts in May", reads the note.
According to the most recent data from the International Energy Agency, oil production in the country in August remained practically the same as the previous month, at 1.18 million barrels a day.
"The difference between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) supply target and actual production remained at 350,000 barrels a day below the maximum in June, which compares with a difference of 240,000 barrels a day in December of the year. past", write the analysts, concluding that despite the improvement in production, Angola remains far below the 1.8 million barrels reached in 2015.