"Higher inflation and higher interest rates, as well as the sharp reduction in fuel subsidies since June, will significantly limit personal consumption growth and growth in the non-oil economy", write the analysts in a commentary on the latest data on the inflation.
"We forecast that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will slow down from 3.3 percent in 2022 to 1.7 percent, when we previously forecast 2.5 percent in 2023," writes the African department of British consultancy Oxford Economics.
In the note sent to customers, and to which Lusa had access, analysts point out that "the favorable impact of the robust strengthening of the kwanza in the first half of last year and lower food prices dissipated and the persistent weakness of the currency had an impact on the prices of consumer products".
Since May, the national currency began to fall sharply, reaching the official record of 833 kwanzas per dollar, leading to a rise in food prices.
"In addition to this, the reduction in fuel subsidies has also started to put upward pressure on transport prices, so based on these factors, we anticipate that the inflation rate will continue to rise to 16.3 percent by the end 2023 and that the Bank of Angola will raise the key interest rate by 200 basis points before the end of the year", conclude the analysts.
Inflation in Angola rose to 12.1 percent in July this year compared to the same period of 2022, also registering an acceleration compared to the 11.3 percent recorded in June compared to the same period of the same year, while monthly inflation rose to 1.6 percent in July, when in June it had registered a rise of 1.4 percent compared to the previous month.
