"With little investment in recent years, oil production has been in decline since 2016, when it peaked at 1.79 million barrels per day, up from 1.39 million last year, and this year, with falling prices and restrictions imposed by OPEC [Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries], production is not expected to exceed 1.25 million," writes the economic analysis unit of British magazine The Economist.
In the comment, sent to customers and accessed by Lusa, the EIU says that "the exploratory activity of the last rounds of bidding will take several years to produce results, so production will continue to fall until 2023 and is not expected to rise again until 2024.
Even so, they add, this forecast carries risks that arise due to the new strategy followed by the oil companies following the consequences of the pandemic.
"If the current scenario of low prices and lower demand continues, the companies will probably leave some markets; most of the new exploration activity in Angola is being done in ultra-deep waters, which is very expensive and technically difficult, so it is a market from which the companies would want to leave if they are forced to set priorities," the analysts warn.
Even so, they point out, the forecast points to a positive scenario in the medium term: "The current environment of low prices will reduce investor interest in exploration in the short term, but our central forecast continues to point out that when prices recover, Angola will attract interest from oil investors in a context of revitalization of the sector.
