"The 2022 elections will likely be the most disputed since the country became independent, due to the reputational damage to the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), as well as the shaky anti-corruption campaign and the slow progress of the reforms launched by João Lourenço", write the analysts.
In an analysis of the August elections in Angola, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the director of the African department of Eurasia, Shridaran Pillay, and the researcher Jeanne Ramier write that, "if elected", they conclude, "João Lourenço will likely have to increase his focus on improving social conditions, especially if the election result is disappointing, while at the same time he will have to keep the commitments made with the International Monetary Fund, such as removing subsidies."
In analyzing the elections, the researchers write that "the appeal of the ruling party, largely based on the historic role of the liberation struggle and the civil war, is fading, as younger voters, who did not experience the war and are indifferent to this narrative, they are more concerned with education, unemployment, lack of economic opportunities and health care".
The elections, scheduled for 24 August, are the first in which the generation born after the war will be able to vote, and it will also be the first time that the diaspora will be able to exercise the right to vote.
"There is no clear indication of who the majority of the diaspora support, which makes these voters important to follow," the analysts write.
Eurasia foresees a victory for the MPLA, but by a narrower margin, "maintaining the trend that accelerated in the last elections", and considers that "it is not certain that the MPLA will be able to maintain an absolute majority and the right to, alone, change the Constitution", which becomes less important given that it is not possible to change the fundamental law in the next nine years.
Next year's municipal elections, they consider, "will be the main reason for political combat and a great test for the MPLA", since the opposition may win some important municipalities, "forcing the MPLA to, in some way, have to share the power" with UNITA.
For Eurasia, a second term of João Lourenço will be marked by the continuity of policies: "The President is committed to the reform of the economy and will continue his agenda on macroeconomic stability, budgetary consolidation and privatizations", they point out, noting that one of the priorities it will be "diversification of the economy and the development of agriculture and mining, while combating the decline in oil production".
The next government, continues Eurasia, will have multiple challenges, among which are "high unemployment, rampant inflation, high cost of living, increased strikes and protests, calls for democratization and the humanitarian crisis in the south of the country."