"Angola is expected to have a less severe impact when compared to its African partners due to increased oil revenues; more stable production and high oil prices have resulted in a flow of petrodollars during the last year, which has strengthened the rate of exchange rate of the kwanza and improved the opinion on the sovereign credit of the country", write the analysts of Oxford Economics.
In the comment on the impact of the war in Ukraine on oil-exporting countries, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the economists point out that, in addition to these factors, "the improvements in the 'rating' attributed by Fitch and Standard & Poor's (S&P), as well as the USD 1.75 billion issuance in April, for which demand was twice as much as supply, is a testament to the improvement in investor confidence in the evolution of Angolan debt".
Even so, they point out, "Angola's production remains below the quota allowed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which means that the country's external position could benefit more if Angola manages, in a sustained way, to increase oil production and exports".
In May, Angola overtook Nigeria as the largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, but essentially at the expense of Nigeria's reduced production, as Angolan production remained more or less stable, at around 1.1 million barrels per day, average.
As with other oil-exporting countries, the high price of fuel is positive for public accounts; in the case of Angola, the current price of around 120 dollars is more than double the 59 dollars per barrel forecast in the budget for this year, and above the Oxford Economics forecast of 105 dollars per barrel for this year as a whole.
"African oil-exporting countries should register marked improvements in their external accounts, after having suffered hard in 2020, when oil prices sank and production cuts were implemented", conclude the analysts.
In the early hours of February 24, Russia launched a military offensive in Ukraine, which was condemned by a large part of the international community, which responded by sending weapons to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia.