"We anticipate that oil production in Angola will fall in the long term, with production of oil, liquefied natural gas and other liquids contracting by an average of 1.8 percent annually over our ten-year forecast, reaching 1.1 million barrels in 2030," the analysts said.
According to an analysis of the Angolan oil sector, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, the analysts of this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that "the bidding round offers potential for future reserves and production growth, while regulatory and fiscal changes show steps in the right direction to improve appeal to international investors."
In the report, Fitch Solutions writes that "due to small projects becoming operational and the nature of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cuts in 2021 and 2022, the long-term forecast is improved slightly by positive near-term growth, with production expected to rise 2.2 percent and 7 percent in 2021 and 2022."
The consultancy's forecasts come at the same time that the Angolan government has revised its production estimate for this year, now betting on production of less than 1.2 million barrels per day.
"For 2021, the initial forecast was 1,220,400 barrels of oil per day, however there was a mid-term adjustment and we have a forecast of 1,193,420 barrels and what we are doing is to meet this new forecast," said the Minister of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas, Diamantino Azevedo, in an interview with Lusa this week.
The official noted that the Angolan production comes mainly from mature fields, which have already reached a production peak and are in a decline phase, which can only be reverted or mitigated with investments in research, having been approved a national strategy to increase the knowledge about the oil potential in Angola.
Also in 2020, the target of 1,283,450 barrels per day fell short and Angola produced only 1,271,460 barrels.
