"High oil prices are positive for producers, but Angola will be the big winner", write analysts at consultancy Fitch Solutions, in a comment on the evolution of the main African economies.
In the comment, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Rating point out that the rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year, and accelerated since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia , will have positive consequences for Angola.
“We anticipate that Brent oil prices will rise from an average of US$71 per barrel to US$100 this year, and that crude oil production in Angola will increase by 3.5 percent this year, after a five-year decline, which will increase export earnings, which are worth 90 percent of the total," writes Fitch Solutions.
Despite the strong rise in the first half of the year, the consultancy estimates that growth will slow down in the second half of the year, "due to the ingrained sanctions against Russia and the rise in production from OPEC+, the United States and Iran, to reach an annual average of 100 dollars per barrel".
The rise in foreign exchange inflows also has a positive effect on the kwanza, which has been appreciating significantly since last year, after a sharp drop since the partial liberalization of the exchange rate in 2017.
"Angola's kwanza will continue to perform better than its peers this year, mainly driven by the oil sector, and it has already strengthened around 35 percent since the beginning of the year, but it should slow down its appreciation and close the year with an increase of 23.1 percent compared to last year's value, to be worth 486.61 kwanzas per dollar", conclude the analysts.
