In the 'Fiscal Monitor' report, released as part of the Spring Meetings taking place this week in Washington, Angola should maintain the downward trend in public debt that started last year, after reaching a record 136.8 in 2020. percent of GDP.
The report, which only presents the tables with the values, without explanation, predicts that next year the Angolan authorities will be able to maintain the trajectory of reduction of the public debt as a function of GDP, which will rise from 57.9 percent this year, to 54.6 percent in 2023 and will continue to decline to 36.1 percent in 2027, the Fund's last year of forecasts.
On Tuesday, in another report released as part of the Spring Meetings, which are being held jointly with the World Bank until the end of the week from Washington, the IMF had already advanced the economic growth forecast for Angola, which should register a expansion of 3 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2023.
The IMF on Tuesday slightly improved its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8 percent, maintaining the 4 percent estimate for 2023, compared to January forecasts.
According to the World Economic Forecasts, the region's economies will grow 3.8 percent this year, with an expansion of 3 percent in Angola and 6.1 percent in Equatorial Guinea, which thus interrupts several years of economic growth. recession, although it is expected to return to negative growth next year.
According to the document, Nigeria, the region's largest economy, is expected to register an economic expansion of 3.4 percent and 3.1 percent this year and next, representing an improvement of 0.7 and 0.4 percent. percentage points, respectively, compared to the January update of the World Economic Forecasts released in October last year.
"In sub-Saharan Africa, higher food prices will undermine the purchasing power of consumers, particularly among lower-income families, which will negatively influence domestic demand; social and political unrest, particularly in West Africa, also influences the evolution perspective" of the region's economies, reads the released report.
Even so, the rise in oil prices, which have been above US$100, is a positive point for the main oil exporters in the region, such as Nigeria and the Portuguese-speaking Angola and Equatorial Guinea, which together are expected to grow by 3,000. 4 and 3.1 percent in 2022 and 2023.
The released report does not present forecasts for all African economies, whose regional analysis will only be available next week, when the report on Economic Forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa is released.
On Tuesday, the IMF also revised downwards forecasts for world economic growth this year by 0.8 percentage points (pp), to 3.6 percent, mainly due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, according to the World Economic Forecasts. .
According to the update of world economic projections, the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva sees the world economy growing by 3.6 percent this year and in 2023, a cut of 0.8 pp and 0.2 pp, respectively, in compared to the January forecasts.
The slowdown in growth from 6.1 percent in 2021 assumes that the conflict in Ukraine remains confined to the country, that the new sanctions on Russia do not cover the energy sector, and the economic and health impacts of the pandemic diminish throughout 2022. .
"The war in Ukraine has unleashed a costly humanitarian crisis that, without a quick and peaceful solution, could become overwhelming. Global growth is expected to slow significantly in 2022, largely as a consequence of the war," notes the Bretton Woods institution. .