Ver Angola

Economy

Angola is expected to emerge from the recession of the last five years and grow 1.3 percent this year

Consultant NKC African Economics said Angola's economy is expected to grow 1.3 percent this year, despite the limitations imposed by the pandemic, low oil production and lack of water for agriculture.

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"Following the reforms launched in recent years, which are encouraging investment, the recovery in oil prices and a predictable recovery in global demand, we expect economic growth to reach almost 1.3 percent this year," write the analysts in a comment on the latest figures from the National Statistics Institute (INE), which point to a 5.2 percent recession last year.

"The economic recovery this year will still be limited by the restrictions that remain in force with regard to the covid-19 pandemic, a modest decline expected for oil production this year due to the exhaustion of wells, and lower agricultural production by because of the lack of rain between December and March in the most southern regions ", say the analysts.

In the note sent to customers, and to which Lusa had access, analysts at this African subsidiary of Oxford Economics recall that "the economic recession of 5.2 percent in 2020 was the worst since 1993, and represents an aggravation in the face of the drop in prices. 0.6 percent recorded in 2019, "attributing these results" in part to Angola's excessive dependence on the oil sector, which sank following the fall in prices in 2014 and the steady reduction in well production due to lack of investment ".

The Angolan economy registered a negative growth of 5.2 percent last year, according to preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), confirming the biggest fall in the economy in the last five years.

"The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in chained volume of the fourth quarter of 2020, in comparison with the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted, registered a growth of 0.6 percent, and in comparison with the fourth quarter of the previous year it registered a fall of 5.4 percent; the preliminary annual GDP, resulting from the four quarters of 2020, decreased by 5.2 percent in relation to 2019 ", reads the note available on the INE website.

Last year, it is confirmed, was the fifth consecutive year in which the Angolan economy lost ground, following the 2.6 percent fall in 2016, 0.2 percent in 2017, 2.1 percent in 2018 and 0.6 percent in 2019, according to data presented by INE.

Last year, the economy of the second largest oil producer was always in negative territory, starting in the first quarter with a fall of 0.8 percent, which deepened to 8.5 percent from April to June, and then slowed down to 6.2 percent in the following three months and to 5.4 percent in the last quarter of last year.

According to INE, "the performance of economic activities in the fourth quarter of 2020 in relation to the fourth quarter of 2019, in terms of negative variation, is mainly attributed to the activities of Construction (-41.5 percent), Transport and Storage (- 13.2 percent), Post and Telecommunications (-16.9 percent), Oil Extraction and Refining (-10.8 percent), Public Administration (-6.8 percent), Other Services (-2, 8 percent), Electricity and Water (-2.9 percent) ", read in the presentation of the National Accounts for the fourth quarter.

For this year, the Government estimates positive growth very close to 0 percent, while the International Monetary Fund last week revised its growth forecast for 2021 down from 3.2 percent to 0.4 percent.

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