"To reflect the maintenance works in Dália, which we had not previously foreseen, we are going to lower our forecast for oil production in Angola to 1.127 million barrels per day", write the analysts in a comment on the evolution of the oil sector in the country.
In the analysis, sent to customers and to which Lusa had access, the African department of the British Oxford Economics writes that, as a result of the review, "a slight reduction in export earnings and oil revenues is now expected", which implies a reduction of the budgetary surplus, from 1 percent of GDP to 0.7 percent", a value that compares with the 2.9 percent recorded last year.
"The modest recovery in oil production growth in recent months will now suffer a major setback due to the 35-day stoppage for maintenance at the Dália oil well", consider the analysts.
In January, oil production in Angola rose to 1.1 million barrels, 20 thousand more than that recorded in December, according to figures from the International Energy Agency, which reveals an improvement compared to the 1.05 million in October last year.
"Even so, Angola continues to produce much less than what is permitted under the OPEC+ agreement, which makes it possible to produce over 350,000 barrels per day", and the stoppage should make production fall below one million barrels this month. daily barrels.
Last year, oil production in Angola rose 1.4 percent, to 1.127 million barrels, ending a six-year slump, essentially due to new wells and the expansion of current ones, "but the addition of new production capacity has been largely offset by continuing operational difficulties which have led to a drop in production at older wells," says Oxford Economics.
From a financial point of view, 2022 was a very positive year taking into account the rise in oil prices on international markets: "The figures from the Ministry of Finance show that oil revenue rose 50.5 percent in 2022 to reach 9. 1 billion kwanzas, mainly due to the oil price having risen 47.1 percent last year, in line with the 42.6 percent increase in the average Brent oil price", they write, concluding that this year the Brent oil is expected to drop 15 percent on average, taking the value back from $100.7 per barrel to $86.