Ver Angola


Oxford Economics: Inflation set to drop below 13 percent this year

The consultancy Oxford Economics will revise the inflation forecast in Angola to less than 13 percent this year, considering that the slowdown gives room for the central bank to lower the interest rate by another 250 basis points.


According to the opinion of these consultants, sent to customers and to which Lusa had access, the rise in prices in Angola should gradually slow down to reach the end of the year below 13 percent, which represents a reduction in the forecast, since that the African department of this British consultancy forecast a 14.6 percent rise in prices in January.

"The most recent data on inflation are lower than we expected, so we should lower our forecast for 2023", write the analysts in the comment on January inflation, which was 12.6 percent compared to the same period last year. from 2022.

"Unlike most of the rest of the world, Angola recorded a sustained decline in inflation last year, mainly due to a strengthening of the local currency in 2022 compared to the previous year, and a general decline in food prices since May 2022", analysts add, noting that the outlook remains positive for the rest of this year.

Analysts also indicate that "the outlook for the evolution of inflation in the country remains positive, with inflation expected to slow down due to the base effect, an expected decline in global food prices and a slowdown in the growth rates of monetary and credit aggregates".

On the African continent, the United Nations (UN) forecasts that inflation will drop to 14.4 percent this year and 9.6 percent next year.

In the report on the World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2023, released in January, the UN considers that, among the various African regions, those that will record the highest inflation this year are North Africa (16 percent), West Africa (15.1 percent) and Southern Africa (14.6 percent).

Even with double-digit inflation, East Africa rises, with 11 percent, and, with the lowest percentage, the Central African region, with 3.6 percent inflation in 2023.

In a more general scenario, global inflation is expected to remain high in 2023, at 6.5 percent, and world production will slow down compared to 2022, settling at 1.9 percent, announced the UN, asking governments to avoid austerity.

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