According to the report on the Angolan economy, sent to customers and to which Lusa had access, these consultant analysts owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings estimate that in 2024 the growth of the Angolan economy will accelerate to 2 .3 percent.
"Delays in the main reforms that aim to improve the business environment and facilitate investment are one of the main risks to economic growth and political stability in the long term", they point out, adding that "this year's economic growth will be largely based on the non-oil sector".
Among the main forecasts, Fitch Solutions points to the decline in oil prices in the coming quarters as a negative factor for the country, emphasizing that "the moderation in global oil prices and domestic production put downward pressure on the export of Angolan goods this year", which makes them foresee that Angola's external position will "gradually deteriorate between 2023 and 2027".
In the report, the consultants also estimate that the National Bank of Angola (BNA) will cut the interest rate by 250 basis points, that is, 2.5 percentage points, which will cause the reference rate to drop to 17 percent until the end of this year.
"The decrease in inflation and the weak economic activity should encourage the BNA to make these cuts during this year", reads the report, which maintains the estimate of reduction of the public debt, which should fall from 61.8 percent for the year. passed to an average of 56.2 percent between 2023 and 2027.
With regard to the evolution of the Angolan currency, the forecast points to a "slight devaluation" this and next year, going from an average of 503.5 to 520 kwanzas per dollar, this semester, to 520 to 545 kwanzas per dollar in the next year.
"Excessive currency depreciation could increase the cost of external debt, which would pose risks to debt sustainability", conclude the analysts.