"We predict that the National Bank of Angola will keep the kwanza stable, at around 830 per dollar during the first half of this year, due to fears about growing inflation", write analysts at BMI Research.
With inflation expected to start falling again in the second half of the year, analysts at this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings estimate "that the BNA will let Angola's national currency gradually devalue to 900 kwanzas per dollar by end of the year, giving an annual average of 853 kwanzas per dollar".
In its analysis of the evolution of the kwanza, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, BMI Research says that it does not foresee the informal rate of 1000 kwanzas per dollar being exceeded.
"After a three-year moratorium, debt payments to Chinese creditors resumed in 2023, which, together with the drop in oil revenues, reduced the supply of foreign currency in Angola; as a result, the kwanza depreciated sharply against to the overvaluation of 510 kwanzas per dollar in mid-May, to 825 per dollar at the end of June", explain the analysts.
Since the beginning of the second half of 2023, "the National Bank of Angola has limited the exchange of foreign currency, and banks have reported difficulties in purchasing dollars outside an increasingly narrow exchange rate margin", they add, noting that despite creating difficulties in accessing dollars and causing delays in payments, these measures have allowed the kwanza to remain stable, between 828 and 832 kwanzas per dollar".
For 2025, the forecast is that Angola's currency will devalue a little more, to 927 kwanzas per dollar, with inflation falling from 17.5 percent in 2023, to 15 percent at the end of 2024, and to 12.3 percent at the end of next year.
