"Both Angola and Mozambique have a very limited level of trade with Russia and Ukraine; Angola imports wheat and yeast from Russia, while Mozambique imports a significant amount of wheat and a small amount of refined oil from Russia," he told Lusa the Oxford Economics Africa analyst who follows these two African economies.
"It appears that, at least for now, Angola is generally benefiting from higher oil and gas prices, which are partially driven by the conflict," Gerrit van Rooyen said in remarks to Lusa from Paarl, South Africa.
"Higher oil prices are positive for government revenues and for the value of the kwanza", added the analyst, stressing that if this rise is sustained, "this could increase investment in Angola and lower debt levels faster than previously anticipated".
Furthermore, he continued, "if gas prices remain high due to the conflict, this will be positive for investments in Mozambique's liquefied natural gas", since "the profits from the natural gas existing in the Rovuma basin could be greater than the risk of armed extremist insurgency in the region".
Despite the benefits for the public accounts of the two Portuguese-speaking states, Gerrit van Rooyen points out that for citizens the disadvantages outweigh the advantages.
"Higher oil and wheat prices mean bad news for consumers, as inflation, which is already high in these countries, particularly in Angola, is expected to increase more than initially expected," he concluded.
Wheat and yeast are two of Russia's top exports to Angola and Mozambique, according to data from an economic research center sponsored by Harvard University. In the case of Angola, they represent more than 30 percent of purchases from Russia in 2019, followed by stamps and yeast, while in Mozambique, wheat represents more than 75 percent of Russian imports, followed by fertilizers, which were worth 18 percent of the total.
On Thursday, Russia launched a military offensive in Ukraine, with ground forces and bombing targets in several cities, which has already caused about 200 deaths, including civilians, and more than 1,000 wounded in Ukrainian territory, according to Kiev. The UN reported 150,000 displaced people in the first day of fighting.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the "special military operation" in Ukraine aims to "demilitarize and denazify" its neighbor and that it was the only way for the country to defend itself. of its "results" and "relevance".
The attack was condemned by the international community in general and prompted emergency meetings of several governments, including the Portuguese, and of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU) and the UN Security Council, with sanctions being approved. en masse against Russia.
