According to the March edition of the FocusEconomics report on this African region, Angola this year will have a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 72 billion dollars, which compares with Kenya's 106 billion dollars and Ethiopia's estimated 121 billion dollars, which are still far from Nigeria's 535 billion dollars and South Africa's 363 billion dollars.
The data, collected from national statistical institutes and central banks, and presented in the March report on sub-Saharan Africa, sent to customers and to which Lusa had access, are explained by the reduction in economic growth in the region's second largest oil producer, Angola, since it entered recession five years ago, and by the rapidity of Ethiopia and Kenya in recent years.
Last year, according to data presented by FocusEconomics, Angola had already been overtaken by Kenya, which advanced its GDP to 96.7 billion dollars, compared to Angola's 85.8 billion in 2019.
"The Angolan economy seems to have remained trapped in recession in the last quarter of last year, after having contracted at the fastest pace in the year during the third quarter," reads the part of the report on Angola.
"Activity in the oil sector seems to have fallen again, with the drop in domestic production being enough to compensate for the increase in prices at an international level," adds the document, which also notes that the fall in the value of the kwanza has damaged household spending.
"The first quarter of this year also shows a gloomy picture, with domestic production and international prices falling in January, suggesting that the oil sector has dragged global economic activity," write FocusEconomics analysts.
The analysts consulted by this consultancy for economic forecasts also reduced the economic growth forecast for this year by half the figure for last month, now anticipating an expansion of 0.2 per cent, which will accelerate to 1.8 per cent in 2021.
"The forecast was cut again in February in a context of falling international prices and reduced demand for black gold," they write, noting, nevertheless, that "the economy should come out of recession this year, supported by ongoing economic reforms and assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
