"Economic growth in the third quarter was higher than our expectations, particularly in the case of the non-oil economy, but it is explained by smaller sectors of the economy, which account for most of the growth", write the analysts in the information note that comments on the figures presented by the National Statistics Institute regarding growth between July and September.
In the analysis, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the BFA research office also points out that, "also contrary to expectations, there was an acceleration in the oil economy, growing at a faster pace than in the previous quarter", leading to an upward revision of the forecasts, which previously pointed to economic expansion of 3.1 percent last year.
"We have revised our GDP growth forecasts: on the one hand, we now expect the oil sector to grow by around 2.65 to 2.9 percent in 2024, and on the other hand, we estimate that the non-oil sector will grow by around 4.4 to 4.65 percent," leading to the economy growing by between 2.25 and 4.50 percent of GDP last year.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.5 percent in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2023, and recorded quarterly growth of 2.94 percent, the National Statistics Institute (INE) of Angola announced on December 19.
In its analysis, the BFA research office recalled that the third quarter "was the 14th consecutive quarter of GDP expansion in year-on-year terms, despite some quarterly slowdowns observed" and pointed out that "the non-oil economy grew 6.3 percent compared to the same quarter of 2023, reaching the highest level of growth since the third quarter of 2021, when it expanded 6.5 percent".
According to the Quick Information Sheet (FIR) for the National Accounts for the third quarter of 2024, the value relating to the evolution in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of 2024 (2.94 percent) takes into account the seasonally adjusted series.
The main activities that contributed positively to the variation in GDP in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter were oil extraction and refining (0.43 percentage points, p.p.), trade (0.4 p.p.), fishing (0.3 p.p.), diamond and other mineral extraction (0.24 p.p.) and postal and telecommunications (0.12 p.p.).
The INE data indicate that the positive accumulated variation throughout the year, compared to the same period in 2023, is mainly attributed to the activities of diamond, metallic and other mineral extraction (36.8 percent), transport and storage (14.1 percent), fishing (11.6 percent), electricity and water (7.0 percent), trade (4.9 percent), other services (4.6 percent), agriculture (4.1 percent) and oil extraction and refining (4.1 percent).
The activities that contributed the most, in terms of participation, and were important factors for the performance of activity in GDP in the third quarter of 2024 were extraction and refining of crude oil and natural gas, with a weight of 29.3 percent, trade, with 22.5 percent, agriculture and forestry (11.4 percent), other services (7.2 percent), products and manufacturing industry (8.6 percent) and fishing, with 5.8 percent.
