"For 2023, the Budget forecast is 75 dollars per barrel, with a barrel of Brent currently at around 78 dollars, it is necessary to see how 2023 goes, because at the end of last year the price dropped a lot due to issues related to the Chinese economy and Ukraine, so 75 dollars doesn't shock me, but we'll see," Tiago Dionísio told Lusa.
Speaking to Lusa regarding the approval of the Budget for 2023, scheduled for Friday at the National Assembly, the economist said that "in 2022 there was a huge contribution from oil revenues to the improvement of public accounts, since 30 percent remained above the Government's initial forecast in the Budget", that is, almost 8 billion kwanzas due to the very significant rise in the price, following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
"This effect was all achieved via price, since the estimated production for 2022 is in line with the budget", he stressed, adding that "the forecasts for this year are naturally lower, but still above the 59 dollars expected in the Budget for 2022, and with regard to oil production, the estimate is for an increase of 2.8 percent", going from 1.148 million barrels per day in 2022 to 1.180 million barrels per day this year, that is, 32 more 8 thousand barrels.
Revenues from the non-oil sector are expected to increase this year in Angola, offsetting the drop in oil revenues, "but even so, the Government predicts that revenues will be more or less the same as in 2022, having recorded a slight difference of 0.7 percent".
Where there is a more significant difference is in expenditure, which the Government expects to increase by 8.4 percent "due to the increase in current expenditure, related to spending on goods and services and payments to civil servants and interest, because the service of the Angolan debt [amortization and interest], despite having fallen [from around 130 percent in 2020 to less than 60 percent last year], still represents an important part of expenditure", accounting for 45 percent of total expenditure.
The OGE2023 proposal, prepared with an average price of 75 dollars per barrel of oil, below the 2022 average of 100 dollars, was delivered to parliament on December 9, 2022 and will be discussed and voted on Friday, day 13.
The Minister of State for Economic Coordination, Manuel Nunes Júnior, who delivered the document, said at the time that the OGE2023 has a budget surplus of 0.9 percent and that the expected growth rate will be greater than the population growth.
The OGE2023 proposal will fundamentally fulfill two objectives, he pointed out, listing the "continuation of the country's economic growth and the continuation of prudent budgetary management".