"In 2023, we foresee that GDP will grow more slowly, mainly due to the contribution of oil GDP, which will again be quite negative", write the economists in a comment on the growth of the third quarter, in which the economy expanded by 3.9 percent compared to the same period of 2021.
"More importantly for the living conditions of Angolans, non-oil GDP should grow again", they point out, pointing out that, "with the anticipated contraction in terms of oil GDP, the general level of economic activity should grow between 1.0 and 1.5 percent, accelerating again to an average pace of around 3 to 5 percent in the period between 2024-2027".
The downward revision of the growth forecast for this year comes a few days after the World Bank has revised downwards the estimate of Angola's economic expansion this year.
The World Bank now forecasts 2.8 percent this year, 0.5 points less than it estimated in the June report, according to the Global Economic Forecast, released in Washington last week.
Angola is expected to have grown by 3.1 percent in 2022, recovering from 0.7 percent in 2021 and accelerating after five years of recession, but will see its growth slow down this year, the World Bank said at the time.
"The economy as a whole is accelerating, but with different trends in the oil and non-oil sector", says the BFA, predicting that "the oil economy, which grew for the third time since 2016, should slow down its growth in the fourth quarter of 2022", adds the economists' note.
For the last quarter, the BFA estimates that Angola's economy grew between 3.8 and 4.3 percent, "supported by growth between 2.3 and 2.7 percent in the oil economy and an expansion among the 4.4 percent and 4.9 percent of the non-oil economy".
