"In 2022, a new growth trend may be established in Angola, also supported by the oil sector (slight increase in volume produced, and a significant rise in price), but above all due to the other sectors of the economy; in our expectation, it may be the first in many years in which real GDP grows at a faster rate than the population (about 3.2 percent)", reads an analysis of the most recent figures on the country's economy.
"For the entirety of 2021, our estimate is for a GDP increase of between 0.8 percent and 1.3 percent, supported by an almost complete recovery of the non-oil economy, which should have grown by around 6.8 percent. percent to 7.3 percent", add the BFA analysts.
In the analysis sent to customers, and to which Lusa had access, analysts say they predict "an economy growth between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent" this year, supported both by the oil economy and by the economy. non-oil.
Since 2014, the economy has not grown faster than population growth, according to global data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The economy grew 0.8 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, and is on track to emerge, in 2021, from the recession in which it has been plunged since 2016.
"The previous data underwent a slight revision, revealing a less negative performance in the first quarter than was estimated", note the analysts, referring to the 0.5 percent drop compared to the same period last year, which compares with the 3 .8 percent previously presented by INE.
On the contrary, in the second quarter, the revision was in the opposite direction, showing a drop of 0.2 percent in GDP, which compares with the previously estimated growth of 1.2 percent.
Thus, Angola recorded, in year-on-year terms, a fall of 0.5 percent and 0.2 percent in the first two quarters of the year, and a growth of 0.8 percent in the third quarter.