Ver Angola

Economy

Angola's economy fell 6.5 percent in 2020, says IHS consultant Markit

The analyst of the consultant IHS Markit that follows Angola told Lusa this Monday that the country must have registered a contraction of 6.5 percent of GDP in 2020, warning that the kwanza must continue to depreciate.

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"The IHS Markit downgraded the forecast for the economy after the 40 percent drop in construction activity during the second quarter of last year, which contributed to GDP being down 6.5 percent by 2020," Alisa Strobel told Lusa.

If the forecast is confirmed, Angola will have registered the fifth consecutive year of negative economic growth, with the government estimating zero or close to zero economic growth in 2021, according to the revision of the State Budget approved in December in the National Assembly.

Asked about the forecasts for Angola in 2021, the economist said that "the national currency is expected to continue to depreciate in the first half of this year, inflation is expected to be higher and interest rates higher, which will continue to limit growth in consumer disposable income.

This, she added, "will lead to a weaker recovery in private consumption, which will slow the economic recovery in 2021".

On the other hand, "a modest recovery in oil prices will be fundamental to stimulate growth, especially during the second half of 2021, with a recovery in crude production and exports, but unemployment remains remarkably high, and poverty will be prevalent in the Angolan economy in the medium term.

About the privatization program of Angolan public companies, the economist Alisa Strobel says that this "will be positive for the recovery of the service sectors and artisan production in 2022," but warned that the growth of service sectors already this year will reveal only a partial recovery from last year's fall.

In the short term, reforms in the National Fuel Company of Angola (Sonangol) and the privatization of several non-core assets will boost revenues and growth, "but only in the medium term, not in the short term," he concluded.

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