"We expect public debt to fall from 63.9 percent this year to 58.6 percent in 2026, which compares with the 73.7 percent recorded at the end of 2023, driven by high nominal GDP growth and surpluses that will offset the impact of exchange rate depreciation on most of the debt (70 percent), in foreign currency", reads the analysis of the Angolan economy.
According to the latest projections from Fitch Ratings, released regarding the maintenance of the rating at B-, "the more favorable projections in relation to the June forecasts reflect the new nominal GDP base of Angola's GDP, updated in May by the statistics institute, which translate into an increase of 13.1 percent compared to the 2023 GDP".
In the note that maintains the outlook for economic development ('outlook') at stable and the 'rating' at B-, Fitch points out that the assessment of the credibility of sovereign credit "reflects weak governance indicators, high inflation, high levels of public debt in foreign currency and one of the highest levels of dependence on commodities" among the countries analyzed by the financial rating agency.
On the other hand, this negative assessment is offset "by high international reserves relative to peers, current account surpluses, and manageable debt repayment risks due to a positive international oil price environment".
Angola will have to pay 6.2 billion dollars in 2025, representing 5.2 percent of GDP, and 5.4 billion dollars the following year, representing 4.2 percent of GDP, which compares to 5.4 billion dollars that the country will pay this year, says Fitch.
These payments, it says, will be made through a combination "of oil revenues, disbursements from bilateral and multilateral institutions, financing lines from commercial banks and liquidity in accounts linked to Chinese loans."
