"The new blocks awarded in the last licensing round offer the potential for growth in reserves and production in the future, while changes in the fiscal and regulatory landscape also point to steps in the right direction, improving the sector's attractiveness for international investors" , Fitch Solutions analysts wrote.
In an analysis of the oil and gas sector, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the analysts of this consultant owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that "the hydrocarbon exploration strategy between 2020 and 2025 improves the evolution of the oil and gas sector in Angola ".
In the analysis, Fitch Solutions estimates that production will rise from 1.2 million barrels this year to around 1.3 million from 2021 by 2023, warning that the fulfillment of the goals defined by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Angola will occupy the rotating presidency from January 1, "will weigh in production until April 2022".
Starting from the benchmark of 1.5 million barrels per day, Angola had to cut production by 277,000 barrels in the second half of this year, then slowing down the cut to 247,000 in the first six months of 2021.
"Depending on market conditions, these cuts will gradually drop to 196,000 barrels per day in April, and are expected to remain at this level until April 2022," write the analysts.
Looking at the most important sector of the economy, Fitch Solutions experts point out as main strengths "a solidly established oil sector, with developed infrastructure and a diversified service industry, deep waters to be explored, underdevelopment of gas reserves and a stable licensing and tax regime ".
On the other hand, among the weaknesses are "the challenges in the business environment infected by high level corruption, the heavy state presence in the industry through Sonangol and a small domestic market for gas".
