"We anticipate that the MPLA's victory in the August elections will keep the risks of protests high; the MPLA's victory, with 51.2 percent, is a decline from 61.1 percent in 2017 and is the party's worst result since independence", write the analysts in a commentary on the election results.
In the analysis, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings states that "this reflects the growing social opposition of the country's young population, which represented between 15 and 25 percent of more than 14 million votes, and who has shown discontent with the high level of unemployment and low living standards, despite the country's oil wealth".
For Fitch Solutions, the mobilization capacity of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) is high, taking into account the 2,000 young people who took to the streets in September, when the party took to the streets to contest what it claims to have It was electoral fraud.
"We anticipate that there will be more demonstrations against the Government in the coming quarters, as the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation will continue to fuel anti-MPLA sentiment", they point out, adding that "despite popular pressure to improve the socioeconomic conditions of the population, the MPLA will be slow to implement the reforms and João Lourenço's promise to create more jobs and better living conditions, due to the high costs of external financing".
Although the protests may increase, Fitch Solutions sees no danger of an overthrow of the Government outside the Constitution: "We do not anticipate that the protests will pose any real danger to the stability of the party that supports the Government, as the MPLA has strong control of the security apparatus", they say, concluding that in João Lourenço's second term, the economy should accelerate to an average growth of 2.3 percent between 2022 and 2027, improving compared to -1.5 percent recorded between 2016 and 2021 .
