Cedesa – the Association for Studies on Economic and Social Development in Africa, which focuses specifically on Angola, argues that, with Trump's return to the US presidency, "Angola faces a strategic dilemma that demands a realistic approach free from illusions."
"The relationship between the two countries, which saw significant progress during the Biden administration — notably with the investment in the Lobito Corridor and the recognition of Angola as a strategic partner — is now subject to the transactional and unpredictable logic that characterizes Trump's political style," the document, entitled "Angola and the Trump Administration: Between the Trump Organization and the Diplomacy of Disinterest," emphasizes.
In this sense, the think tank states that it is "critical to recognize that the United States, under Trump, no longer has a coherent strategy for Africa. American foreign policy has become erratic, focused on immediate and personal interests, without a long-term vision for the continent."
"Countries like Angola can benefit from direct negotiations, but without guarantees of support in humanitarian, educational, or public health areas. This short-term logic compromises the building of lasting relationships and places African countries in a vulnerable position," it notes.
Cedesa concludes that "the geopolitical implications of this strategic absence are profound," with the "void left by the US" being "quickly filled by rival powers like China and Russia, which have stepped up their investments in infrastructure, security, and military training in Africa."
Under the current US administration, the US prioritizes specific trade agreements, with a special focus on the oil exploration and mining sectors, which reveals "a lack of interest in African dynamics and a preference for bilateral relations that directly benefit the business interests of the President" of the United States.
Cedesa highlights as one of the "most obvious signs of this disarticulation" the lack of relevant diplomatic appointments, particularly the lack of appointments to important positions related to Africa, including that of Undersecretary of State for African Affairs and Ambassador to the African Union.
Furthermore, there is the "dismantling" of the US diplomatic structure, centralizing African policy in the Office of the Special Envoy for African Affairs, reporting directly to the National Security Council, instead of the State Department, which "reinforces the logic of political control and weakens traditional diplomacy."
"Given this scenario, what can Angola do?" asks Cedesa, which puts forward two hypotheses: "maintain institutional relations and wait," which it considers to be the "diplomacy of disinterest," or "please Trump's private interests," which it classifies as "commercial pragmatism."
In the first hypothesis, "one of the most sensible options Angola can adopt (...) is neither resistance nor confrontation, but simply ignoring."
"It's about maintaining formal and functional diplomatic relations with the United States, without investing political energy or strategic capital in a relationship that, at this time, does not promise stability or reciprocity," it explains.
"Rather than trying to interpret or influence foreign policy With its erratic approach, Angola can focus on deepening relations with partners that demonstrate commitment and long-term vision—such as the European Union, India, the Gulf countries, and the African blocs. "Disinterested diplomacy, in this case, is not passivity: it is focus," he emphasizes.
In the second scenario, which he highlights as "more pragmatic," Cedesa states that Angola "could offer commercial opportunities to the Trump Organization as a way to secure attention and investment," noting that this is what Qatar and Vietnam have done, with concrete results.
"For Angola, this approach could represent a strategic opportunity to attract direct and immediate investment in key sectors such as oil, mining, and tourism," he explains, emphasizing that by establishing partnerships with the Trump Organization, the country "could benefit from the brand's international visibility, boost large-scale projects, and position itself as a preferred destination for American investors."
Whatever the Angolan authorities' strategy, "the key is to balance pragmatism with prudence," he concludes.
