Ver Angola

Economy

Fitch Solutions: Angola pulls out of recession and grows 1.7 percent this year

The consultancy Fitch Solutions foresees "weak growth" of 1.7 percent this year in Angola, mainly sustained by the increase in oil exports and the country's economic recovery, despite consumption remaining below forecasts.

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"We forecast that Angola's GDP will only grow by 1.7 percent in 2021, after having recorded negative growth of 5.2 percent in 2020, and we anticipate that the 3.4 percent drop in the first quarter compared to the same period last year will be the last this year, as the slow recovery in domestic demand will contribute to a return to growth in the second half," the analysts wrote.

In the note sent to investors, to which Lusa had access, the analysts of this consulting company owned by the same owners of the Fitch Ratings agency consider that "public and private spending will continue to face difficulties, limiting its contribution to economic growth.

According to Fitch Solutions' analysis, exports will be the main driver of economic recovery, mainly in the oil sector.

"We anticipate a rise in oil exports starting in the second half of this year, with small projects starting to carburet, and with the gradual reduction of the cuts decided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)," reads the note, which predicts a significant rise in oil prices, from $43.2 per barrel in 2020 to $72 this year.

The rise in the barrel price, combined with Fitch Solutions' forecast of a 2.2 percent production increase this year, after five years of decline, "will provide significant support for exports, as oil represents 89.4 percent of Angola's foreign sales in 2020," the analysts concluded.

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