"Angola's rating reflects weak governance indicators, high inflation, high levels of public debt in foreign currency and one of the highest levels of dependence on raw materials among the countries assessed by Fitch Ratings", write analysts in note that indicates the maintenance of the rating at B-, below the investment recommendation.
In the analysis, the experts from this rating agency owned by the same owners of the consultancy Fitch Solutions explain that "these data are offset by greater international reserves compared to their peers, current account surpluses and manageable debt payment risks due to an environment positive impact on oil prices over the next two years".
Fitch analysts point out, in the information released on Friday night, that Angola's GDP is expected to grow 1.8 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2025, essentially due to the non-oil economy, after in the year In the past, economic growth was just 0.8 percent.
Even so, they point out, "economic growth will be limited by high inflation, partially due to the reform of fuel subsidies, and continued limitations on the internal supply of external currency", writes Fitch Ratings, adding that the rise in prices is expected to be 28 percent on average this year, and 18 percent in 2025, which compares to the average of 15.2 percent last year.
Regarding public debt, Fitch highlights the high amounts of amortization that the country will have to pay this and next year, which will rise to 6.5 billion dollars this year, and 6 billion dollars in 2025, compared to 5.6 billion dollars paid last year.
"These higher repayments reflect the end of the Chinese creditor moratorium in June 2023 and will be met through a combination of the use of petroleum revenues, disbursements from bilateral and multilateral sources, financing lines from commercial banks and liquidity in the related escrow account with loans from China that use oil as collateral", says Fitch Ratings in the note sent to Lusa.
Debt payments, analysts also point out, will also be "supported by the recently announced agreement with Chinese creditors, according to which Angola will be able to use part of the liquidity in the guarantee accounts, between 150 and 200 million dollars per month, to serve the debt to other creditors".
