“We expect oil production in Angola to rise to 1.18 million barrels per day in 2022, up from 1.13 million barrels in 2021, but the balance of risks is negatively unbalanced due to the possibility of further technical and of disruptions in supply chains," the analysts write.
In a comment on the May figures, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, analysts from Oxford Economics write that China, which accounted for 70 percent of Angola's exports last year, will be decisive for the evolution of national oil revenue. this year.
"The confinements related to the Ómicron variant adversely affected oil exports, which forced Sonangol to sell shipments at a great discount", point out the analysts, stressing that Russia is also important for the evolution of oil exports in Angola, which are worth about 90 percent of the total.
"Angola faces tough competition from China, which could put even more pressure on Angolan oil prices; Russia is selling cheap oil in a context of an embargo on Russian oil by other countries, and in May Russia already replaced Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia as China's biggest oil supplier," says Oxford Economics.
Oil production in May dropped slightly in Angola, but in the total of the first five months, the country managed to pump 1.17 million barrels per day, on average, which represents an increase of 1.9 percent compared to the period between January and May 2021, which had a positive impact on public finances and the exchange rate.
"The more stable production and the high price of oil led to a flow of petrodollars last year, which improved the exchange rate and the quality of Angola's sovereign credit; the Angolan currency traded at around 433 kwanzas to the dollar in recent days. , which represents a strong reversal from the worst period of November 2020, when one dollar was worth 660 kwanzas", writes Oxford Economics consultant.
Although production is at low levels, especially compared to the last decade, when Angola pumped almost 1.8 million barrels a day, the level of revenues is historically high due to international crude prices.
“Statistics from the Angolan Ministry of Finance continue to show a strong improvement in oil revenues, mainly due to high prices; cumulative oil revenues in the first five months of 2022 were up 89.2 percent compared to the period between January and May 2022. 2021", say the analysts, noting, nevertheless, that "the average price of Angolan oil fell from US$119.5 per barrel in April to US$63 per barrel in May, due to the impact of reduced Chinese demand, caused by by the confinement imposed by the covid-19 pandemic".
