"We project that real GDP will finally recover, after five straight years of contraction, to record growth of 1 percent in 2021," one reads in an analysis of the latest figures from Angola's National Statistics Institute, which show a fall of 3.9 percent in industrial production in the first quarter.
In the commentary, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, the analysts from the African branch of British company Oxford Economics wrote that "the 3.9 percent drop in the first quarter was greater than the fall in the last quarter of 2020, when there was a decline of 1.7 percent, both against the same period of the previous year.
The main culprit for the decline was oil and natural gas production, which weighs 85.3 percent in the total index, and saw a 17.8 percent decline from January to March this year compared to the same period in 2020.
"Putting together the analysis of the industrial production index with the latest indicator on the economic climate, we foresee that GDP in the first quarter has registered a moderate contraction," say the analysts in the commentary sent to clients and to which Lusa had access.
The experts note that "oil production in Angola fell 18 percent in the first quarter due to operational issues in the costly deepwater wells," noting that oil production data shows a drop that continued at least until May.
"Fortunately, the rise in oil prices to over $70 has benefited government revenues despite the drop in production," the analysts conclude.
