"We expect inflation to reach a peak of 31 percent in June, compared to the same period in 2023, and then slow down to reach the end of the year with an average of 23 percent", write analysts from the African department of this British consultancy.
In a comment on the April inflation figures, released this week by the National Statistics Institute (INE), Oxford Economics writes that "the contagion of the sharp devaluation of the kwanza last year will continue to be felt until next month, with the continued removal of fuel subsidies putting more pressure on transport inflation".
In the commentary on the numbers, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the African department of Oxford Economics writes that "the stabilization of the exchange rate at 835 kwanzas per dollar and the decline in food prices worldwide will help to stabilize the inflation from the second half of this year".
Inflation increased again in April, for the 12th consecutive month, registering a year-on-year variation of 28.02 percent, a maximum of almost seven years, according to INE.
The Quick Information Sheet (FIR) of the National Consumer Price Index (IPCN) indicates that this variation represents an increase of 17.61 percentage points in relation to that observed in the same period of the previous year.
In March, inflation had reached 26.09 percent year-on-year.
In Luanda, prices shot up 38.87 percent, an increase of 28.77 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
It is necessary to go back to June 2017, when inflation stood at 30.51 percent to find a higher value, according to statistics from the Trading Economics website consulted by Lusa.
The National Bank of Angola increased the reference interest rate by 100 basis points, to 19 percent, in a context of rapid increase in inflation and growth in the money supply, recalls Oxford Economics, pointing out that "with no visible signs of reduction inflation, the continued growth of the monetary base, and the accumulation of excess reserves, the BNA should choose to increase interest rates by another 100 basis points and may also implement monetary containment measures this Friday", next monthly meeting of the central bank.
