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Banking and Insurance

BNA revises high inflation to 19.5 percent in 2021

The National Bank of Angola (BNA) revised inflation upwards for 2021, expecting it to reach 19.5 percent at the end of the year against the 18.7 percent initially forecast, taking into account the supply shock registered in the first four months.

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The information was released after the meeting of the BNA's Monetary Policy Committee (CPM) in which the recent behavior and prospects of the main economic indicators were analyzed, bearing in mind the current development of the pandemic situation.

The BNA points to the "slow recovery" of the international economy, despite the progress of vaccination in several countries and the introduction of fiscal and monetary stimuli, as well as "inflationary pressures", originating on the supply side, at the national level.

The National Consumer Price Index registered a change of 1.78 percent and 2.09 percent in March and April 2021, respectively, bringing the accumulated inflation to 7.65 percent and the year-on-year to 24.82 percent in April.

"The increase in inflation was mainly due to the greater increase in the price variation of the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages class, reflecting the shock of the aggregate food supply, justified by the reduction in domestic supply that was not sufficiently offset by imports", he explains the BNA in a note posted on its website.

With regard to the foreign exchange market, the BNA points out that the kwanza accumulated gains of 1.24 percent and 4.48 percent in relation to its North American and European counterparts in March, while for April, depreciated by 3.25 percent and 6.08 percent against the US and European currencies, reducing the cumulative appreciation to 0.51 percent and 1.94 percent, respectively.

The BNA also points out that the International Reserves remain at comfortable levels.

The stock of Gross International Reserves stood at US $ 14.59 billion in April, against US $ 14.98 billion (12.28 billion) in March, equivalent to a degree of coverage of imports of goods and services of approximately 11 months.

Net International Reserves stood at US $ 7.99 billion, compared to US $ 8.42 billion in March.

"With regard to external accounts, the new projections point to an overall surplus balance of payments balance in the order of US $ 450 million, which will allow a slight accumulation of international reserves of the same magnitude, basically justified by the positive effect of the rise in prices of international markets ", adds the institution.

Taking into account the indicators, the CPM decided to keep the basic interest rate at 15.5 percent and increase the coefficient of mandatory foreign currency reserves from 17 percent to 22 percent, ending the obligation to partially comply in currency national.

The interest rate on the Standing Liquidity Provision Facility, indexed to the market interest rate on the Treasury Bills for 91 days, plus 0.5 percent, and the interest rate on the Standing Liquidity Absorption Facility, are maintained with a 7-day maturity of 12 percent.

The next ordinary meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Angola will be held on July 29, 2021.

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