"The Angolan economy remained resilient last year; after recovery in 2021 and 2022, in 2023 it was hit hard by a decline in oil production and prices, coinciding with the end of the moratorium" on debt payments, in following the suspension of payments due to the covid-19 pandemic, said Thibault Lemaire in statements to Lusa at the end of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, which took place until Saturday in Washington.
The IMF forecasts growth of 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent this year and next in Angola, below the 3.8 percent and 4 percent estimated for the sub-Saharan African region, and above the 0.5 percent percent in 2023, according to the updated forecasts presented last week.
Even so, the Fund predicts a "gradual recovery of economic activity in 2024, supported by the performance of the oil and non-oil economy, with inflation remaining high this year and gradually decelerating".
In reports released last week, the Fund predicted that, after a 13.6 percent increase last year, prices would rise 22 percent this year and 12.8 percent in 2025.
In terms of recommendations, the economist responsible for coordinating the report on sub-Saharan Africa, released on Friday, says that "in the short and medium term, budgetary consolidation and reforms in this area are essential to reinforce budgetary and public debt sustainability" and concludes that "accelerating the implementation of structural reforms is essential to guarantee macroeconomic stability and promote diversified, resilient and inclusive growth".
In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to increase from a predicted 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024 and 4 percent in 2025, "with the negative effects of climate shocks continuing and problems in the supply chains supply to gradually improve", says the Fund.
At a global level, the IMF improved its global growth forecast by a tenth to 3.2 percent this year, a rate it also expects for next year.
The institution led by Kristalina Georgieva predicts that global growth, estimated at 3.2 percent in 2023, will continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025.
The forecast for 2024 was revised upwards by 0.1 percentage point (pp) compared to the January report and by 0.3 (pp) compared to October last year.
